Help me pick a Big Dogs T-shirt to buy before the tariffs hit
This dog will hunt.
It’s a Big Dog economy
For those of you who don’t know, I live in Seattle, Washington. Obsessive Ryan Email Club readers likely have already discerned this from cryptic clues I’ve sprinkled throughout previous emails — clues such as frequent mentions of the word “Seattle” and photos of places that are Seattle. It’s part of my broader strategy of dropping coy references to my personal life as a way to engender intimacy and intrigue among my fans, à la Taylor Swift.1 Basically, I’m the Taylor Swift of writing emails.
I’ve lived in Seattle for nearly three years now (holy moly) and it’s turned out to be the perfect locale from which to author weekly emails of portent and renown. Everything happens here, from baseball games to democratic elections to talking birds.
And this week is no exception. As America and the world wonder, “Hey, are those tariffs still happening?” concerned observers turned their gaze to Seattle’s maritime shipping port.
In the above Reddit post, prominent information disseminator u/Dark-Knight-Rises (maybe this guy?) shares a photo of the Port of Seattle that looks eerily uncargoed. Numerous other pieces of visual evidence have been shared elsewhere, mostly ballyhooing a similar desolation.
The port is just over the hill from my apartment, so I checked it out for myself.2 For what it’s worth, claims of absolute emptiness are exaggerated: While the eastern portion of the port is indisputably bare, other sections appear to be operating as normal. One might describe the port as half empty or half full, depending on your disposition.
According to port operators, that eastern part (locals call it Terminal 30) has been shut down since the beginning of the year for reasons unrelated to Smoot-Hawleyish trade initiatives. And if you’re looking for more good news, recent reports have noted a March/April uptick in shipping traffic at the ports in Seattle and Tacoma.
“But Ryan,” I asked myself in the third person, “wouldn’t an isolationist trade policy designed to cut off imports from international partners result in less activity at international shipping ports, not more?”
Well, that’s what I thought, too! But apparently, if countries say they’re going to increase tariffs by a stated deadline, most importers/exporters will try to import/export as many things as possible before those tariffs take effect. That seems to account for at least some of the surge in comings and goings at the Port of Seattle in March and April, as businesses worked frantically to beat the much-touted tariff-tiff with China.
But a downturn is already afoot, and it’ll get worse before it gets better. Tariffs on products going to and from China went into effect in early April, and an exemption on smaller shipments expires today. Now businesses on both sides of the ocean are delaying or canceling orders. The Port of Seattle’s commissioner says he expects a 40% cut in goods passing through Seattle if current conditions persist.
A story from Bloomberg peers into the not-so-distant future, insofar as anyone can these days:
Since the U.S. raised levies on China to 145% in early April, cargo shipments have plummeted, perhaps by as much as 60%, according to one estimate. That drastic reduction in goods from one of the largest U.S. trading partners hasn’t been felt by many Americans yet, but that’s about to change.
By the middle of May, thousands of companies — big and small — will be needing to replenish inventories. Giant retailers such as Walmart and Target told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices. Torsten Slok, Apollo Management’s chief economist, recently warned of looming “COVID-like” shortages and significant layoffs in industries spanning trucking, logistics and retail.
While Trump has shown signs in recent days that he’s willing to be flexible on the import taxes imposed on China and others, it may be too late to stop a supply shock from reverberating across the U.S. economy that could stretch all the way to Christmas.
Anyway, all of this is to say that I need to buy a new Big Dogs T-shirt before all this tariff trouble escalates.
Big Dogs, if you’re unfamiliar, is a premium sportswear brand known for their superior graphic tees.3 As the company says on its website, “Whether your passion is for sports, a par - ticular [sic] hobby, entertainment, your occupation, your family or dogs, our famous graphic tees provide just the right amount of fun, humor, and attitude for you to stake your claim as the Big Dog.”
Look, if there’s gonna be a trade war and a recession, I need to make some smart investments quickly. Big Dogs T-shirts aren’t gonna get any cheaper, folks. Now is the time to Dog Up.
But panic-buying any ole Big Dogs tee just for the sake of it is a classic small-dog mindset. Picking the right Big Dogs shirt for this key moment in history is next-level Dog. The right shirt will preserve and promote my status as the Big Dog, impervious to worldwide calamities. A new world order is coming, and this will be the only distinction that matters: Are you the Big Dog, or are you NOTHING?
I’ve scoured the Big Dogs collection of 710 T-shirt designs and settled on six finalists. Please vote for the design you think I should purchase and wear for the duration of America’s self-inflicted descent into economic malaise.
Did you see a different Big Dogs tee you liked better? Let me know! Narrowing it down to a top five was almost impossible.
Click Roulette
The below links match one of the two descriptions provided for each. Click at your own peril!
CLICK HERE FOR LINK ONE. This is either:
A panel discussion where everyone on the panel poorly conceals their disdain for panel discussions.
A new hairstyle trend in China.
CLICK HERE FOR LINK TWO. This is either:
A guy doing a process video for how to fold socks.
A pelican trying to eat a puppy, but he can’t because he’s a Big Dog.
CLICK HERE FOR LINK THREE. This is either:
We are living through a constitutional crisis and we’re losing the fight against bird flu.
An Anchorage dog getting compliments on his Big Dog stick.
Do you have a question about etiquette?
Whether it concerns public transit, public urinals, or something else entirely, the REC Etiquette Guide has all the answers!
Reply to this email, leave a comment, or send me a message, and I’ll respond in next week’s email.
Tortoise pic of the week
Wordle hint (SPOILER)
BIGDOG is too many letters and too many words to be a Wordle solution.
Song of the week
“It’s a Mirror” by Perfume Genius
Buttons
By “fans” I mean the 40+ friends I subscribed without permission.
I didn’t take any photos, so you’re just gonna have to BELIEVE ME.
Massive credit is due to the OG Big Dog Colby S. for reminding me that sometimes you’ve gotta bite as hard as you bark. Dog respect Dog.
Here is one democratic system where I KNOW my vote will count! Crossing my fingers :)
As much as I enjoy the reflection of Chinese-US trade talks in “Talk to the Paw,” I cannot be swayed from the 90’s internet aesthetic of “Surf with the Big Dogs.”